Risk - A Multidisciplinary Introduction by Claudia Klüppelberg, Daniel Straub, Isabell M. Welpe

By Claudia Klüppelberg, Daniel Straub, Isabell M. Welpe

This is a special publication addressing the mixing of danger technique from a number of fields. it is going to stimulate highbrow debate and verbal exchange throughout disciplines, advertise greater danger administration practices and give a contribution to the improvement of threat administration methodologies. person chapters clarify basic hazard types and dimension, and handle danger and safety concerns from different parts comparable to finance and coverage, the wellbeing and fitness sciences, lifestyles sciences, engineering and knowledge technology. built-in possibility Sciences is an rising self-discipline that considers hazards in numerous fields, aiming at a typical language, and at sharing and enhancing tools constructed in numerous fields. Readers must have a Bachelor measure and feature taken not less than one easy collage direction in information and chance. the most objective of the publication is to supply simple wisdom on threat and defense in a standard language; the authors have taken specific care to make sure that all content material can conveniently be understood via doctoral scholars and researchers throughout disciplines. every one bankruptcy offers easy case experiences and examples, open learn questions and dialogue issues, and a particular bibliography inviting readers to additional study.

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Example text

The asymmetric difference between known risk and unknown risk, favoring the known and conceptualized in risk aversion, focuses on risk consciousness as well as on risk management. 2 There are two rational concepts to classify risk and risk management with two opposite directions of analysis (Fig. 2): risk management as avoidance of harm and danger, and risk management as establishment of new opportunities. We characterize four elements of risk as: rational awareness of (unspecified) danger; rational observation of complexity and possible escalations; estimation and calculation of developments, dynamics, and volatilities for management; and finally risk related to courageous and powerful action.

In the midst of the first wave of FTA-hype, however, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) refrained from quantitative approaches to risk and safety analysis. John Garrick, a pioneer in nuclear risk assessment and a leading figure of the US risk analysis community, has retold the events as follows: “The time is remembered as about 1960, and the event was a bad experience with a probability calculation on the likelihood of successfully getting a man to the moon 22 K. Zachmann and back.

Watson who graduated with a PhD in nuclear physics from MIT in 1949 and worked at Bell Labs afterwards. In 1961 Watson conceived of FTA in connection with a US Air Force contract to perform the above-mentioned study of the Minuteman Launch Control System (Ericson, 1 [55] and Haasl, 1 [63]). Boeing Aircraft Company engineer David Haasl recognized the value of Watson’s new method and organized the application of FTA to the entire Minuteman Missile System. Other departments of Boeing got interested as well, and Boeing began to use FTA in the design of commercial aircraft.

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